Here we're going to be looking at the final meet of Women’s League 1 and Men’s League 2 

Women’s League 1

Stafford Raptors

Promoted, as champions, dropped one point all season, never looked in doubt really. They do have 1 final test between them and dodgeballs favourite word: “undefeated”. That would be London Storm 2. I would expect to see the word undefeated on Raptors social media very soon.

Opponents: Worcestershire Virtue Vixens, London Storm 2

Opponent	Worcestershire Virtue Vixens	London Storm 2
Predicted score	21-3	15-9
Probability of winning	>99%	70%
Probability of a draw	<1%	16%

 

Probability of being undefeated: 87%

London Storm 2

It starts to get more interesting now, I say that, but all London Storm 2 need to do to avoid dropping to third is to get a point. If they don’t do that then Norwich needs to overcome a 74-set difference (SD). I would say this is a banker, but 21-3 score lines would do the trick. Stafford Raptors are capable of putting up the big numbers, however Manchester Honey bees haven’t put up more than 15 points. A loss to Honey Bees is a probability though so we shall have to see about other results.

Opponents: Manchester Honey Bees, Stafford Raptors

Opponent	Manchester Honey Bees	Stafford Raptors
Predicted score	17-7	9-15
Probability of winning	88%	13%
Probability of a draw	8%	16%

 

Probability of losing both matches: 3%

Norwich Nighthawks

If the Norwich Nighthawks have been nice this year, then London Storm 2 might loose both their matches. They would then need to overcome the 74-set difference between the two teams. First up is Nottingham Sheriffs 2. Last time they played it was 11 all and when teams need sets as well as the win then they tend to make mistakes, should be a good match. Once London Storm 2 have played Honey Bees then they may know their fate. That doesn’t mean they will take it easy on Stafford Raptors 2 as Derby Phantoms 2 are right behind them and SD is a lot tighter.

Opponents: Nottingham Sheriffs 2, Stafford Raptors 2

Opponent	Nottingham Sheriffs 2	Stafford Raptors 2
Predicted score	15-9	16-8
Probability of winning	70%	82%
Probability of a draw	16%	11%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 57%

Derby Phantoms 2

Phantoms 2 threw their name into the medal ring last week by beating both Nighthawks and Storm 2. That is a big statement however it may be too little too late. Them and Nighthawks face the same 2 teams, and they are 2 points behind. They cannot catch Storm 2 in 2^nd.

Opponent	Nottingham Sheriffs 2	Stafford Raptors 2
Predicted score	15-9	16-8
Probability of winning	69%	81%
Probability of a draw	17%	12%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 56%

As this article is getting too long already and there is no relegation from this league. I shall not cover the 3 teams who could drop to 7^th and 8^th is all tied up as Virtue Empire cannot catch Nottingham Shertiffs in every way but mathematically.

 

Men’s League 2

Norwich Nighthawks

Time to toot my own horn, I predicted that Nighthawks would lose to Dragons, but I don’t see them loosing this week. Given that they only need 1 point to get gold, I think the race for the title is over already. The math says different:

Opponent	Wessex Wolves 2	Carmarthen Wizards
Predicted score	16-8	14-10
Probability of winning	81%	58%
Probability of a draw	12%	20%

 

Probability of winning both matches: 47%

Leamington Spartans 2, Rhondda Dragons & Stafford Raptors

Does anyone remember the good old times where Leamington Spartans 2 were flying high top of the table and, yup, undefeated? It is a different landscape now with Rhondda Dragons toppling Nighthawks and Spartans losing to Stafford Raptors in the last meet its all tied up for second place. The reason why I have grouped these three teams together is that at 14.45 on court 1 and probably on stream, Spartans 2 and Dragons face off. Then even after this match all three teams are still in it and Raptors face Dragons.

First, if Spartans 2 beat Dragons, then I think it’s all over (for promotion). Spartans would be two points clear and need a point to secure promotion. They face Bottom of the league, Soldier Bees, who they previously beat 24-0. 

Next, we are assuming that Raptors can beat their second team and Dragons beat Spartans 2. This would very much be game on, as even though Dragons would be 2 points clear, they face fellow promotion hopefuls Stafford Raptors. A point for Dragons in this case would do but if Raptors win then they tie up their points with Dragons. Spartans 2 are then going to beat Soldier Bees (sorry fellow bees) which would mean all three teams would be on the same number of points.

Set difference would then be the deciding factor, in this case Spartans 2 have it they are 24 sets clear and can rack up the points against Soldier Bees. However 3^rd place is in the balance, Raptors would need to eliminate the 14 point deficit between the two teams which is easily done against their second team.

Final thing to say on this three-way fight is that if Spartans 2 beat Dragons then the match between Raptors and Dragons is effectively a third Place shootout as both teams would be on the same points going in. SD would probably favour Raptors as the 14 SD would evaporate in their first matches. That means a draw would do.

Leamington Spartans 2:

Opponent	Rhondda Dragons	Manchester Soldier Bees
Predicted score	13-11	16-8
Probability of winning	56%	83%
Probability of a draw	21%	11%
Probability of a loss	23%	6%

 

Stafford Raptors

Opponent	Stafford Raptors 2	Rhondda Dragons
Predicted score	17-7	13-11
Probability of winning	87%	47%
Probability of a draw	9%	22%
Probability of a loss	4%	30%

 

The bottom is simpler as none of the bottom three are facing each other. The only write off match is Spartans v Soldier Bees who have the hardest time to escape

Manchester Soldier Bees

The great escape started last week, if it wasn’t for a 13-9 win for Soldiers then they would be all but relegated already. Even now, if either Raptors 2 or Cyclones 2 get a point then it is near impossible to stay up. Soldiers must beat Phantoms 2 and if either of the teams above them does get a result then they need to get the same result against Spartans 2. The “good” thing about this is that going into the Spartans 2 match, Bees will know what they need.

Opponents: Derby Phantoms 2, Leamington Spartans 2

Opponent	Derby Phantoms 2	Leamington Spartans 2
Predicted score	10-14	8-16
Probability of winning	20%	6%
Probability of a draw	19%	11%

 

MK Cyclones 2 & Stafford Raptors 2

Even after coming off a disappointing loss to Soldier Bees, Cyclones 2 are currently safe by 1 point. That means to stay up they need to match Raptors 2 results, as Raptors have a 154 SD advantage. That would mean even a point for Raptors 2 would take them above Cyclones 2. In terms of fixtures, Cyclones have the better opponents but its going to be a test for both teams to get points.

MK Cyclones 2 Opponents: Carmarthen Wizards, Wessex Wolves 2

Opponent	Carmarthen Wizards	Wessex Wolves 2
Predicted score	8-16	11-13
Probability of winning	8%	24%
Probability of a draw	13%	21%

 

Probability of getting a point: 56%

Stafford Raptors 2 opponents: Stafford Raptors, Derby Phantoms 2

Opponent	Stafford Raptors	Derby Phantoms 2
Predicted score	7-17	9-15
Probability of winning	4%	10%
Probability of a draw	9%	14%

 

Probability of getting a point: 35%