Final Predictions - Men's Super League & Men's League 1
Today we are going to be looking at the top two men’s divisions. I hope you enjoy.
Men’s Super League
Leamington Spartans
The two teams that stand between Spartans and gold are not easy, they are also fighting for 4th and a lot of pride. Therefore, I would say that Meteors have a good chance of overtaking them on the final day. On the other hand, Spartans beat Rangers 23-5 last meet, to put that in context; Rangers have only scored more than 20 points against 1 team Spartans did it against third place. Killer Bees and Storm look out.
Opponents: Manchester Bees, London Storm.
|
Opponent |
Manchester Bees |
London Storm |
|
Predicted score |
14-10 |
15-9 |
|
Probability of winning |
65% |
73% |
|
Probability of a draw |
18% |
15% |
Probability of winning both matches: 47%
Lutterworth Meteors
Meteors need Spartans to slip up simple as that and they need to capitalise and take maximum sets as well as points. Even if they catch Spartans on points, they need to overturn 12 SD which shouldn’t be too hard when facing MK cyclones.
Opponents: London Storm, MK Cyclones.
|
Opponent |
London Storm |
MK Cyclones |
|
Predicted score |
14-10 |
18-6 |
|
Probability of winning |
66% |
92% |
|
Probability of a draw |
18% |
5% |
Probability of winning both matches: 61%
Bedford Rangers
I think their current 3rd place position is not going to change. They need Meteors to lose both, them to win both and overcome 54 SD swing. Sorry not going to happen, but a well-earned third place
Wessex Wolves
All Wessex need is a point and I think their SD advantage keeps them safe as it is almost 100 SD better than the other relegation contenders. Even if they don’t then MK need a win over meteors for them to drop into the bottom 2.
Opponents: Leicester Dodgeball, Bedford Rangers
|
Opponent |
Leicester Dodgeball |
Bedford Rangers |
|
Predicted score |
11-13 |
8-16 |
|
Probability of winning |
31% |
5% |
|
Probability of a draw |
22% |
9% |
Leicester Dodgeball
If Leicester beat Wessex in the first match or even beat sheriffs in the second, I think this is all she wrote, as MK would need to beat a meteors team gunning for the title that will have one eye on the other court. However, 2 losses open the door for MK to take one win over London Storm 2 and it will come down to SD. The magic number is 32 so the door may be only open a crack.
Opponents: Wessex Wolves, Nottingham Sheriffs
|
Opponent |
Wessex Wolves |
Nottingham Sheriffs |
|
Predicted score |
13-11 |
10-14 |
|
Probability of winning |
47% |
22% |
|
Probability of a draw |
22% |
20% |
MK Cyclones
They will already know if they can avoid relegation as Wessex and Leicester are on before them. If Leicester win then they just need to win, but then they would also need to beat Meteors to go above Wessex. If Wessex win, they need to win big over London Storm 2, to help get the 32 SD needed to overtake Leicester, a tough ask but possible
Opponents: London Storm 2, Lutterworth Meteors
|
Opponent |
London Storm 2 |
Lutterworth Meteors |
|
Predicted score |
12 (f) - 12 |
18-6 |
|
Probability of winning |
43% |
2% |
|
Probability of a draw |
22% |
5% |
London Storm 2
This would be the great escape if Storm 2 don’t finish in the bottom 2, a win against MK cyclones is a relatively easy first step but they need to do that and then beat the Manchester Killer Bees. Even then it is still in the hands of others, they need Leicester to slip up in both of their games and MK to lose against Meteors. A lot to ask but a reporter’s dream.
Opponents: MK Cyclones, Manchester Killer Bees
|
Opponent |
MK Cyclones |
Manchester Killer Bees |
|
Predicted score |
12-12 |
17-7 |
|
Probability of winning |
34% |
5% |
|
Probability of a draw |
22% |
9% |
Men’s League 1
This league has been entertaining from start to finish but is there going to be a twist at the end.
Coventry Silverbacks
The top three is all about who makes a mistake as none of the top three are playing each other. Coventry Silverbacks even avoid the top 5 in their final two games. Derby are one point behind with tied SD so if Coventry slip up, even with a draw, then derby could sneak in and take the title.
Opponents: Worchester Virtue Empire, Nottingham Sheriffs 2
|
Opponent |
Worchester Virtue Empire |
Nottingham Sheriffs 2 |
|
Predicted score |
16-8 |
14-10 |
|
Probability of winning |
81% |
67% |
|
Probability of a draw |
12% |
18% |
Probability of winning both matches: 54%
Derby Phantoms
I think Phantoms are looking ahead of them rather than behind as Mighty Eagles and themselves have similar matches and Phantoms have a three-point advantage thank you to Silverbacks beating them last week. Like I have already said if Silverbacks slip up Phantoms will pounce. They would have to get past both Leeds Owls and Manchester Worker Bees who faced each other in meet 8. Leeds came out on top, but it was down to the final set in a 13-11 win. Luckily Mighty Eagles must face Owls as well and win to have any chance of catching Derby.
Opponents: Manchester Worker Bees, Leeds Owls
|
Opponent |
Manchester Worker Bees |
Leeds Owls |
|
Predicted score |
15-9 |
12 (f) -12 |
|
Probability of winning |
71% |
43% |
|
Probability of a draw |
16% |
22% |
Probability of winning both matches: 31%
Bedford Mighty Eagles & Leeds Owls
Mighty Eagles have all but locked up third but two wins from Owls, one of which is against Mighty Eagles and 2 losses from Mighty Eagles means it would come down to SD. 34-set difference is easily on the cards if the results fall into place. However, the likelihood of Owls beating Phantoms and Mighty Eagles losing to Strom 3 is low. Also Bedford is neither black and gold not teal as the final score over two legs was 23-23.
|
Opponent |
Leeds Owls |
Storm 3 |
|
Predicted score |
15-9 |
18-6 |
|
Probability of winning |
70% |
94% |
|
Probability of a draw |
16% |
4% |
Probability of 2 losses for Mighty Eagles: 0.2%
Manchester Worker Bees
Virtue Empire and Thunderdodge would both have to overtake bees for them to be in the bottom 2 and they are facing each other. Only a Thunderdodge win and then wins for both teams in their other match would mean this happens. Virtue Empire are facing Silverbacks, I think they will be fine.
Virtue Empire and Thunderdodge
The match between these two teams will decide both teams’ fate, mathematically. However, because of a 66 SD between the two there must be a swing there as well for Thunderdodge to have a chance. A point against Sheriffs 2 would go a long way and if Silverbacks win big it would help. We shall know the magic number going into their matchup as it is both team’s last match.
|
Opponent |
Thunderdodge v Sheriffs 2 |
Thunderdodge v Virtue Empire |
|
Predicted score |
10-14 |
11-13 (virtue win) |
|
Probability of winning |
16% |
29% |
|
Probability of a draw |
18% |
22% |
|
Probability of losing |
67% |
49% |
London Storm 3
Unfortunately relegated but they would love it if they could take down either Bedford team to go down in style.